From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 21-JUL-1991 23:55:56.78
Subj:   USSR, and several other places ..., (#526)

USSR-

Boris Yeltsin signed a decree on Friday that will go into effect 2
August, that no political activity will be allowed in government
offices or factories. This mneasure is clearly aimed at the CPSU's
former monopoly on such activities.

A US Representitive named Miller has reportedly gotten President Bush
to put on the 30-31 July summit agenda the querying of the Soviets
about some 20,000 American MIAs from World War II, most of whom were
alleged to have been in Soviet hands. There is no belief on Miller's
part that any are still alive, but one would suggest (as a person
with a parent who fought in that war very much still alive!) that
more than a few might be alive if Stalin didn't order them all
murdered.

Croatia-

Violence continues in Croatia, Serbs against Croatian defense forces.
Apparently, the federal Presidency is ignoring or refusing to honor
Croatia's request to remove JNA troops from their territory as
they've agreed to do in the Slovenian case.

Bulgaria-

CNN reported today that during this past week 27 oppostion members of
Parliament went on a hunger strike against the Socialist (formrly
Communist) majority in Parliament because they sought new elections
and a referendum on the new constitution. Elections for Parliament
are to occur in September, and they called off the hunger strike 19
July.

Italy-

Of the 24,000 Albanians who fled in April and May to Italy, yesterday
was the deadline for them to find jobs or be deported back to
Albania. Only 12,000 found jobs, the other half are slated to be sent
back to Albania in an unspecied period of time.

Cuba-

Cuba will be hosting the Pan American games 2-18 August. That's a
switch. Also, Castro recently appeared at the Ibero-Latin American
summit in Mexico City. Unlike Gorbachev seeking aid, Castro was able
to secure agreements of some sort relating to trade with Colombia and
Chile, and got some assurances from Mexico for aid. What makes his
situation considerably different from Gorbachev's is that his
neighbors did NOT demand reform in Cuba in return for aid. In the
USSR's case, we wouldn't give Gorbachev aid, AND demanded reforms!
Castro said that Cuba was ready to "belong" to the integrated and
sovereign nations of Latin America.

Changes in lots of directions amongst nations and peoples once under
Communist rule, and among a few not far removed from that embrace
still appear to happening in abundance. Summer continues to be
lively. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 23-JUL-1991 00:31:43.19
Subj:   USSR, trade and business, and ... (#527)

USSR-

In 6 days, President George Bush of the US will meet with President
Mikhail Gorbachev on his home ground for the first time. The
ostensible reason is a "summit" to sign the START treaty, though at
this hour, there have been no confirming reports from Geneva that
have said "yes, there is a definitive treaty ready to sign 30 July."
The two Presidents did apparently agree in principle on the last
sticking point, "throw-weight." That day's (17 July) CSM reported one
US official saying, "It's an aspect of throw-weight when throw-weight
is used in definitions opf new missle types. Now, do you want me to
explain that in English?"

According to the article, what negotiators had agreed on was that a
21% increase in what the missle could carry constituted a "new
missle." What apparently was agreed on in principle between the two
leaders in London was a means for measuring this critter called
"throw-weight." How to frame that in intelligible language has
apparently still not been decided upon.

This week's Washington Post Weekly has a long and detailed story
called "New Soviet Masters of the Universe," by David Remnick. the
story covers a wide range of new entrepenurial endeavors in the USSR,
>from the brokerage house Alisa, which has made its owner, German
Sterligov "tens and tens of millions of rubles," (and also a founder
of the Young Millionaire's Club, and owner of the USSR's first pro
hockey team) to Artyom Tarasov, a "high-tech and trading magnate," to
others among the 150,000 "ruble millionaires" in the SU. (Which is
about $25,000 on the open market).

Remnick quotes another young "millionaire, 24 year old Anton
Danielets (info, video and real estate in Leningrad), as what he did
almost right away was to hire lawyers to guide him through the laws.
Remnick went on to say, "The key to business these days is to
understand, amid the "war of laws" between Moscow and the republics,
between cities and districts, just who owns what, who has the right
to issue licenses." Danielets and most of the others Remnick
interviewed, admitted the necessity for bribe-paying, "at all
levels."

Danielets is quoted further in the article," Everyone knows that the
smart guys in the Communist Party are trying to grab up as much as
they can before they finally leave the stage. My attitude is this:
Let them. Most of them are sp stupid, they don't even know what real
business is. It's the young who are going to do the work over the
years. we are building empires, but not evil ones."

The rest of the article is a fascinating analysis of the publication
Commersant, which I wish I had the dinero (about $285 a year, I
think) to subscribe to. Vladimir Yakovlev will be a name to reckon
with in Soviet publishing, as is his father Yegor as a powerhouse at
Moscow News.

China-

Yesterday, the US Senate debated fiercely and long over MFN status
for China, whether it should contain conditions or remain
untrammelled by such. It would appear that a growing number of
Senators favor placing some conditions relating to human rights in
general, the use of prison labor for making export goods, and the
treatment of the Tiananmen dissidents. President Bush has threatened
to veto any measure from the Senate that has conditions, but he may
not be able to get unconditional MFN status either. Impasse appears
to be looming large in this area of foreign trade policy.


The Soviet Union is going to be the market of the near future, while
China looms as the market of the farther away future. The world has
become too intimate an arena for any power to live and function in
isolation, as China is continuing to try to do (in part!). The
Soviets and the Chinese will continue to battle for some time a
terrible enemy to genuine reform - corruption. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 24-JUL-1991 00:31:14.00
Subj:   USSR, the CPSU, Yugoslavia and ..., (#528)

USSR-

The Moscow papers, according to NPR, contained Mikhail Gorbachev's
current plans for the CPSU, to be presented at the 410 member Central
Committee meeting 25 July in Moscow (in closed session). Reportedly,
the plan calls for "human democratic socialism," and abandonment of
the "class warfare" stance the CPSU has held most of the past 75
years.

A significant "right wing" minority, maybe 25% of the whole, is
reported to oppose the democratization of the party, along with the
Gorbachev proposals to allow freedom of religion, the holding of
private property, and a right of dissent for party members, as is
already (albeit somewhat limitedly in the case of private property)
the case for all Soviet citizens.

This minority is already calling for Gorbachev to resign as party
leader. They also vigorously oppose Yeltsin's decree of last Friday
that party cells now be forbidden in workplaces and government
offices. It is clear that the basic lines being drawn, at least in
the CPSU's case, are between the "reformers" and the
"authoritarians." One has to suggest that the "authoritarians" live
dangerously in the past, while a screaming need for reform may see
the CPSU fragment. One has called the CPSU the weakest of the "ruling
troika" of party, army and secret police, these moves will certainly
weaken the CPSU further. Will Gorbachev resign as party head, as he
has threatened to do before? The most ludicrous charge against
Gorbachev offered by the "Soviet right" so far reported here in the
West is that he has formed an alliance with the US CIA to destablize
the USSR.

The Soviets today applied today for FULL membership in the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund, only a week after the G7 nations
recommended only "special associate" membership. The Soviets want
loans, which full membership would allow, while the G7 approach would
not allow loans, clearly what the West would rather do, as most of
the money involved would be theirs.

Croatia-

21 people were killed in clashes on Sunday in the republic, and two
more were reported killed today. The Croatian President said
yesterday that the Serbian-dominated JNA was infiltrating people into
the Serbian enclave pretending to be Serbian residents to stir up
further trouble. The Croatian representitive to the Federal
presidency of Yugoslavia walked out yesterday, as that Presidency
continues to resist the Croatian demand that JNA troops be withdrawn
>from Croatia. The Croatian President, Tuchmann? (haven't seen this in
print anywhere, forgive my probable error) said on TV yesterday to
Crotian citizens to "prepare for war." Air raid drills went on in the
capital Zagreb both yesterday and today, NPR reported. CNN reported
this afternoon that over 100 have been killed in two months of
intermittant violence.

China-

President Bush reiterated today his probable veto of any China/MFN
legislation that had conditions attached to it, while the pundits
claim the Democrats haven't got the votes to override the veto. Does
that mean that NO legislation would be in place, and that trade with
the Chinese would cease, or that the prior legislation would hold
until some compromise was reached (though Bush sounds as though he
feels he can bully Congress into whatever he wants).


The "hits keep coming," as a friend used to say to me about intense
changes that just came one after another without letup. The intense
transformation of Soviet society has only begun. The same could be
said of the Yugoslavian situation - whatever is to happen has only
started, and much will occur before the dust settles. Once, these
intense changes would rock the world for weeks, now they are almost
commonplace because they KEEP HAPPENING! They will continue to
happen with surcease for some years to come, it would appear. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 24-JUL-1991 23:38:43.98
Subj:   USSR, the CPSU Central Committee & the "union treaty," (#529)

USSR-

Events continue to loom large in the Soviet world, today Misha
unveiled the new "union treaty." At least nine republics will
probably sign, and Armenia is making noises like it will too, though
it also intends to continue seeking independence under the "rules of
secession" passed by the Supreme Soviet in the wake of the Lithuanian
independence declaration 11 March, 1990. This treaty would replace
the one "agreed to" in 1922. THe weakness of the treaty at this point
is disagreement over taxes, who collects and who gets how much.

Within hours of this writing, the CPSU Central Committee meets. A
central issue has become the Yeltsin decree banning party activity in
factories, government offices and schools (only heard about the
latter earlier today). Already, the Supreme Soviet has been asked by
the Politburo of the CPSU to overturn Yeltsin's decree, while Yeltsin
claims Gorbachev is not opposed to his decision, that "there is no
conflict" between them. The Politburo reportedly made the claim that
the decree is against the party's "civil rights," and certain Central
Committee members claim the move is unconstitutional. I vaguely
recall Gorbachev last year ruling that the party was no longer
paramount in Soviet life, but cannot recall that for certain.

China-

The US Senate passed last night a MFN package with conditions for
China trade by a vote of 55 for, 44 against. Not enough votes to
override a veto by Bush, so where will it go? The situation looks
like an impasse to this observer. It is clear that the Democrats will
not hold still for an extension of MFN unconditionally, ane equally
clear Bush will not allow conditions to be imposed. Frankly, though I
no longer believe I'm of either party persuasion these days, I think
the President is wrong on this one.

Korea-

The US will be pulling back from the Korean DMZ at some point
unspecified, but probably in the near future, it was announced
earlier today. That has some intriguing ramifications to it!


The CPSU Central Committee meeting on the morrow promises more
political turbulence in Soviet life, and probably some tumultuous
hassles for President Gorbachev in addition. I think the Yeltsin
decree will stand, but only after an ugly fight. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 25-JUL-1991 15:32:01.77
Subj:   USSR, Central Committee meeting, comments and ... (#530)

USSR-

The first day of the CPSU's Central Committee meeting went on WITHOUT
the expected fireworks from the conservatives, though it could be, as
Steve Hurst, CNN Bureau chief in Moscow pointed out, "the calm before
the proverbial storm." Hurst referred to the lack of response by the
conservatives to what they clearly oppose in the Gorbachev reforms as
an "eerie silence."

It is clear that there are those who want Gorbachev out, and others
who think his ouster as party chief would begin the splintering of
the country politically. Gorbachev, in introducing his reform package
of a mixed market economy, removal of the party from certain areas of
public life, introducing the convertible ruble, allowing private
property and the freedom to worship, abandoning Marxism for
"democratic socialism," reportedly said today, "I'm sure the party
can take a second breath."

It has been reported today that now a full Party Congress in the fall
(September?) is probable, as the only "legal" party body that can
oust Gorbachev as party chief. I have to wonder about the Politburo's
(when they were much stronger than now!) removal of Khrushchev, was
that "illegal?" Tass reportedly said today that the reform package
offered by Gorbachev would cause a "permanent splintering of the
CPSU."

Romania-

CNN reported today that 10,000 Romanian orphans have been adopted,
but that 160,000 more children, most of them orphans and many with
AIDS, are still in poorly maintained (for lack of funds and staff)
orphanages. Also reported was that half the AIDS cases of children in
Europe are in Romania alone.

Cuba-

Nelson Mandela is visiting this island today. It was his comments in
favor of Castro in the past that have led many in the US to be
lukewarm in supporting both his release from jail, and the ANC's
aspirations of running South Africa.


Now to tread on dangerous ground. I have watched the debate on TPS-L
over Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan with great interest, and with
great sadness too. As someone pointed out recently, the fierceness of
everyone's positions in this delicate and probably unsolvable problem
seems to reflect what many of us see as the dangers of nationalism
and "ethnicism," for lack of a better term. I suspect all sides in
this complicated question have some right in the positions they hold,
AND some error. There WERE massive massacres of both Turks and
Armenians in 1915 - the numbers matter less than the fact that such
gruesome stuff was done by one group of humans to another, and vice
versa. As I'm wont to say about such problems, there is no "right"
side or solution, and no way any one side can have all it wants.

But, unless the past CAN be transcended, and equitable solutions
worked out via peaceful negotiation rather than rigid adherance to
age-old animosities, to ignore the past would apparently mean that
the bloody past will be repeated. I mourn in advance if such were to
be so, because most who will die will not be "evil," or "unfair," or
"imperialist," or "facist," or "racist," (I've seen all these terms
flung about) but innocents, women, children and unarmed people who
will be in the way of armed minorities within each population
determined to make THEIR agenda the triumphant one. I offer
condolences to all who disagree with each other, it is sad to see
that the past's evils cannot be forgotten. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 26-JUL-1991 23:52:22.18
Subj:   USSR, Croatia, Poland and ..., (#531)

USSR-

In four days, the Moscow summit begins. START is to be signed, and
now there are major hints that a trade pact may also be signed that
will allow MFN status for the Soviets with the United States. Though
the trade of the SU is primarily oil and minerals, and only about $1
billion, they could use the break over the long haul, especially the
removal of stiff US tariffs. No one will confirm the trade pact, but
there does appear to be movement in that direction.

Gorbachev apparently wins nows in his changing of the three
generation old CPSU platform towards an emphasis on "free trade,"
privitization of property, removal of punishments for dissent within
the party, freedom of religion for party members, renouncement of the
CPSU's connection to the totalitarian past, and acceptance of the
loss of 4 million of the 19 million members of the CPSU there were 18
months ago. Apparently to assuage the angry conservatives, Gorbachev
threatened on Friday to rescind the unpopular Yeltsin decree banning
party activity in a variety of arenas they have held sway in for over
70 years.

It is being reported that the CPSU Party Congress will be held in
November, and that the fireworks that failed to occur at this Central
Committee meeting (as had occurred in April) will happen at that
Congress. Many who predicted Gorbachev's ouster as party chief today
are now predicting that ouster will surely occur come November. Some
are predicting a permanent split, with the reform wing renaming
itself to Social Democrats or Socialists.

British Airways announced in the last day that a new Soviet airlines
will be fornmed, called Air Russia, to start in 1994. The British
will have a 31% stake in the new venture.

Croatia-

Fighting has gone on all week in this would-be breakaway republic of
Yugoslavia. 20 were reported killed on Wednesday, 7 or 9 on
Thurdsday, 10 more today (though all these numbers are suspect) in
the fighting between Croatian defense forces and the JNA and Serbian
enclavists. Today, the Yugoslav Federal presidency called for a
ceasefire, offered to pull JNA troops back into their barracks in
Croatia if the Croatians would stay out of Serb-dominated areas of
Croatia.

Slovenia-

Earlier today, in a report not repeated the rest of the day, CNN
reported that seven shiploads of weapons had arrived in Slovenia, but
I must connfess that squabbling children caused me to miss who sold
them the weapons, or what kind of weapons were sold & delivered.

Poland-

Lech Walesa reportedly said yesterday that he wouldn't hesitate to
use force against strikes that were "economically disruptive to the
nation." Highly ironical, considering his route to power!


The Central Committee meeting was much more docile than expected by
all observers, Gorbachev squeaked through another potentially nasty
business! However, that does not diminish his unpopularity at home.
Nor does the summit really enhance his image at home either. Jobs,
more real income, a convertible ruble, and food in the stores at
reasonable prices are what the Soviet people want from whomever will
lead. The summit is historic, but START seemed awfully hastily put
together, figure a tough fight in the US Senate on ratification, and
also of a trade treaty if one is truly in the offing. Lastly, the
Party Congress of the CPSU in November and the proposed congress of
an opposition party in September both promise to be fiery, momentous
affairs. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 29-JUL-1991 02:51:49.12
Subj:   USSR, Croatia, and ... (#532)

USSR-

George Bush reportedly said today, on the eve of departing for
Moscow, that due to "technical difficulties" MFN status would NOT be
announced during the summit. Both sides sound hazy about START, but
one has to suspect that a treaty will be signed of SOME sort on one
of those two days. (Now, whether the US Senate will ratify it is
another cup of tea! Although the word is that MFN would be the
tougher of those two to float past that bunch). The seventh summit in
two years seems much more hype than substance, this writer remains on
the fence in what is believed to be accomplishable at this meeting.

Alexander Yacovlev's departure from Gorbachev's inner circle may help
the Shevardnadze "alternate party" camp, but the "godfather of
perestroika's" departure may not help Gorbachev politically to any
great degree. Yacovlev has been there since the accession to the
General Secretary's job in '85 by Gorbachev, and may be sorely
missed. I heard a report ysterday that what he and Shevardnadze MIGHT
be doing is "providing a cushion" for Misha if he were to abandon the
CPSU (or be ousted!).

A Times Mirror poll released yesterday says 60% of Americans believe
Gorbachev is "sincere" in his reforms, 18% think not, 22% aren't
sure. The poll says 28% "approve of the SU's course" (whatever THAT
means), 11% don't, with a whopping 51% not sure. On whether Gorb will
succeed, 41% say yes, 32% say no, 27% aren't sure. A poll done in
Lithuania, the Ukraine and Russia on whether to adopt a market
system, go a form of "democratic socialism," or retain the status
quo offer some odd results (though I missed the status quo percent
for Lithuania).  Lithuania's results - 29% favor US style capitalism,
38% democrtic socialism. In Russia, 40% favor a market economy,
36% favor democratic socialism, 10% prefer the status quo. In the
Ukraine, 49% favor a Western style economy, 27% social democracy, and
10% the status quo.

While I would agree that numbers can say anything one might want them
too, what these figures reveal is a great division in people's
opinions of which way things should go. The generally conservative
nature of most Soviets would suggest that a mixed economy is probably
what will happen in the near future.

Alexis II, Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, is offering
prayers for the success of the summit. He reportedly said that the
START treaty will "lift a burden of fear from the world."

Croatia-

"Dozens were killed over the weekend" was one report. Another said 50
were killed, with no clear numbers on Serbian dead. The EC is reorted
to be trying to convene a "peace conference" in Brussels, no word on
whether any side will accept such an idea. Reportedly, a plane
attacked the town of Ilok (whether by bombs or strafing was not said)
that was from the JNA (or whatever the Federals call the air arm).


Civil war may be the course in Yugoslavia, or parts of it (and a real
mess will be had if this unrest spreads to Bosnia-Herzegovina or
Macedonia!), it would appear that a mini-version of such is already
what is happening in Crotia. This observer does not hold high hopes
for the summit, but one could be surprised too. Though Bush leaves
tomorrow for Moscow, the real business will begin the next day. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 30-JUL-1991 00:48:29.00
Subj:   USSR, Lithuania and Croatia ..., (#533)

USSR-

US and Soviet START negotiators initialled a 600 page treaty today
that Gorbachev and Bush will sign tomorrow. They won't be "official"
until the Supreme Soviet and the US Senate ratify them, but it would
appear at this juncture that there is little risk of rejection by
either body. This agreement is the longest and most complicated arms
control agreement ever signed between to the two "super-powers."

Gorbachev and Bush will joined in their summitting by Boris Yeltsin
and Nursiboyev (?), the "President" of Kazakhstan. The START treaty
appears to be the main "event" of the summit at this point, as MFN
status for the SU is now not likely immediately. There also appears
to be some opposition of a sizable minority of US Senators to the
idea of MFN for the Soviet Union until the Baltics issue is worked
out to the Balt's satisfaction.

Secretary of State Baker and Foreign Minister Bessmrytnykh met
yesterday to further the Mideast peace conference. (Don't know WHERE
they met). It would appear that at least the US is pushing for a
cessation of settlements, while the SU is trying to back that idea,
and a swap of land for peace (Golan Heights back to Syria, for
example).

The Baltics-

President Yeltsin of Russia formally recognized Lithuania's
independence yesterday, Balt-L and CNN reported, while Lithuania
reportedly recognized Russia's sovereignty. That ought to frost
Gorbachev some, as refuses to accept the Lithuanian declaration of 11
March, 1990, and the Russians are reportedly dragging their feet on
negotiating with the Balts. Balt-L also reported 5 OMON soldiers
looted and robbed a Lithuanian customs post, destroyed a customs post
by setting it afire, and fled into Latvia on 28 July.

Croatia-

The killing goes on. An unspecified number was killed in today's
fighting, while Serbs are now reported in control of two Croatian
towns. The Dutch Foreign Minister stated that the ethnic violence had
to cease before a ceasefire agreement could be effectuated.


One continues to believe the summit is more show than substance,
though I'm not in any way denigrating the importance of START. As I
prepare to wander off three days hence, I cannot help but be struck
by how the relationship of the US to the USSR, and the USSR's
internal dynamic, appears totally in a state of flux at this moment
in time.  One would suspect that given some of the passions on TPS-L
on the subject of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey that how things will
"fit together" over the long term seems highly endangered by rigidly
held, strongly nationalistic views.

The peoples of these lands deserve better - trading oppression and
"tyranny" for chaos, uncertainty, and ethnic passions of the
murderous kind would seem a poor trade as we head towards a new
century. The long view would seem to call for a "burying of the
hatchet," as they would say here. However, it would appear that the
agendas of the past still hold sway over many people, and I'm not
able to judge, just comment, that the old grievances are not going to
help build a new and freer society in any of these places. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 31-JUL-1991 00:56:56.13
Subj:   USSR, #534

USSR-

A fascinating day on the summit front. Boris Yeltsin spurned
attending the "mass meeting" with Gorbachev, Bush, and the head of
Kazakhstan, though he met with Bush later in the day. Then he pulled
a "stunt" in a recieving line at dinner - instead of moving down the
line, he stuck with Bush and Misha so he could get his picture taken
too. Yeltsin reportedly saud he didn't "fit into a voiceless mass
audience," that Gorbachv's extension of an invite to only two of the
SU's 15 republic "presidents" was "demeaning," and that if Gorbachev
were to grant the CPSU's request to negate his decree about the party
being in the workplace, |that a serious imbalance would be in place"
if that occurred.

The START treaty is to be signed today, not yesterday as I
incorrectly reported yesterday. It provides for a one third reduction
in planes, subs and nuclear missles, 12 types of inspections, and as
little as 16 hours notice than an inspection is to take place.

Bush announced yesterday that he would ask the Congress to grant MFN
status to the SU, which would allow $150 million in imports from the
USSR to America in the first year. Bush said "the transformation of
the Soviet economy must come from within" and that "the ills of that
economy cannot be solved by just infusions of cash." He also said he
would seek repeal of two laws regarding credit guarantees and trade
that currently are quite restrictive towards the USSR.

Bush also reportedly said that he applauded the Soviets for passing a
new immigration law, deftly sidestepping the tripling of documents
fees and other restrictions built into the immigration law. He was
reported to have said at a conference of managers that the SU ought
to recognize the Baltic drive for independence and the Japanese quest
for the return of the Kuril Islands. On his way home, Bush is to stop
in Kiev.

Bush also reportedly castigated the SU for further supporting
Castro's Cuba. Later, Ignatenko and Fitzwater, the two Presidential
spokesmen, both went out of their way to say that while there ARE
differences between the two nations, there is a great deal more they
agree upon than disagree about. Soviet aid to Cuba is supposedly high
on the day's agenda after the START treaty is signed.

Also reported today was a statement without attributing a source that
the SU would recognize Israel IF the Israelis would attend a Middle
East peace conference. The land business may outweigh the recognition
enticement.

Croatia-

Stepe Mesich, the titular President of Yugoslavia and a Croat, was
reported to have walked out of a Yugoslav Federal collective
Presidency meeting yesterday because a Montenegran with pro-Serbian
leanings was named to head a commission to work on a ceasefire. CNN
reported a Federal air raid on a town 60 miles south of Zagreb,
admitting that they could not independently confirm the statement.
Serbian/Croat clashes, in a lull the past day or so, were reported to
have renewed.

Poland-

A major factory (making what I'm not sure) is to close in Poland,
12,000 workers are to lose jobs. That will NOT help the polish
economy, but neither would keeping an inefficient, money-losing
factory open either.

Germany-

NPR reported today that most eastern German scientists will lose
their jobs in the near future, as they are regarded as "second-rate."

MFN for the Soviets will tough to get through Congress in a year of a
record deficit. The START treaty is significant ONLY if everyone
adheres to it. This meeting is definitely not one of the weightier of
the seven these two men have held, despite START. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH"  1-AUG-1991 00:53:46.11
Subj:   USSR, the summit and ..., (#535)

USSR-

There is much to report from today's events. While the START treaty's
signing was historic, necessary and welcome by all the people's of
the world, the US/USSR announcement to hold a Mideast conference in
Ocober was startling. 5 Arab nations or groups have agreed to such a
conference (now let's see if I can recall them all) - Syria, Jordan,
Lebanon, the Palestinians, and Egypt. The Saudis are being more
reticent. But, this announcement by Gorbachev and Bush puts a lot of
pressure on the Saudis and Israelis to move from their rather
intransigent positions to deal with the possibility of peace. The
Russians at home may dislike Gorbachev, and George Bush may be not
like by a sizable minority here in the States, but the conference
idea was a masterful move.

Gorbachev said this was the first summit where "economics had been
empasized," though one commentator pointed out that Gorbachev had
gotten no real monetary committments from the US. There DOES appear
that the US has a desire to not let the Soviet economy and people go
down the tubes. Bush said that a meeting between could be called
between the leaders of the two countries without a specific agenda.

An interview with Alexander Shalnev and Hedrick Smith today was quite
revealing in what is believed by "expert commentators" on the Soviet
scene. Shalnev said that he thought Gorbachev would not completely
ever denounce the CPSU and communism more generally, that a full
generation would have to pass before SOME kind of capitalism would
occur in the SU, that whatever capitalism emerged would have to be
Soviet capitalism, not US or swedish capitalism, and that Russians
had "to break our mental barriers" about the past to look towards the
future. Smith said he believed that the Soviet people have no idea how
to go from communism to capitalism, that while the peoples of the
USSR "hunger for change," many want no part of it. Both believed that
most folks hope for a quick fix of the enormous problems in the SU,
and both agreed that many years would have to pass before many were
solved.

Other events today were much more somber. 6 border guards were slain
execution style by machine gun fire at Medininkai in Lithuania, near
the Byelorussian border. An Interior Ministry spokesman in Moscow
denied OMON troops committed the act, despite widespread reports of
similar acts by identified OMON personnel (though not much killing up
to now). The Lithuanian Parliament is to meet in emergency session to
debate on a response to this incident, which Landsbergis condemned in
sharp tones earlier today.

At a site called Tomir Cos(?), about 150 miles from Baku, in
Azerbaijan, a train was blown up, with 15 dead and "as many wounded,"
reported Balt-L (whose information on this was MUCH more detailed
than the TV news here has been giving!). Armenian "militants" are
blamed for this incident. In Nagorno-Karabakh, two separate incidents
occurred. At Erkesh, 7 OMON troops are reported killed and 10 wounded
in fighting there, and at Tsandor, 2 Azeri were killed and 5 taken
hostage by parties unknown, but presumably Armenian.

The dichotomy of peaceful reasonable changes and murderous violence
continues in the SU at a faster and faster pace. The people don't
like Gorbachev, and while President Bush muddies the waters at Kiev
tomorrow, still no clear idea of the future has emerged, either from
the summit or the reforms. Sad times, intriguing and momentous times,
it's mind-boggling all the things happening. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH"  2-AUG-1991 01:28:45.18
Subj:   USSR, and ... (#536)

This post will be quite short, and my last one for at least 4 days.
It looks as though I will able to post twice from Arizona while I'm
there. VMS

USSR-

George Bush flew to Kiev, met with the Chairman of the Ukranian
Supreme Soviet, visited the famous St. Sophia Cathedral, and spoke to
the ukranian Supreme Soviet. Frankly, his words, which NPR described
as walking on a razor, were puzzling.

On the one hand, he urged the continuation of the union while he
encouraged, in vague terms, the burgeoning desire in the Ukraine to
be freer of Moscow's control. Bush spoke at Babi Yar, warning that
such awful atrocities ought to never happen again, but refused to
meet with leaders of RUKH, the Ukranian Popular Front movement and
the most significant opposition to union in the republic.

The Baltics-

A bizarre blackout of the aftermath of yesterday's murders in
Lithuania is occurring (though I'm sure Balt-L is covering it. I set
that list to nomail in the early a.m. yesterday, so I do not know).
It was big news yesterday, today it was like the incident never
occurred.

Croatia-

All reserves were called up today, 4 more Croats were killed in firce
fighting with Serbs. NPR reported earlier today that Serbs constitute
12% of the Croatian population, but by force now control 1/3 of the
republic. They also reported a reshuffle in the Croatian government,
which now contains a Serb no one seems to know anything about. The
Slovonia(?) region apparently saw heavy fighting, while the Croatian
Prsident admitted he could only arm about a third of the Croatian
defense force. It was apparently declared by high ups in the Croatian
government that Croatia is on the verge of "all out war."


One would suggest that the US wants to be the preacher for
self-determination ONLY when it serves our economic interests, as in
Kuwait, but in places where people just yearn to be free from
dictatorial control with police state-type governments, such as the
Serbian-dominated Federal Presidency in Yugoslavia, or the KGB/army
dominated central regime in Moscow - no way! It's all well and fine
to say self-determination is desirable, but only when there is
minimum risk. That fine line will not be there - we prop up
Gorbachev, and deny these honest yearnings for nationhood sans
totalitarian control at our own peril, I believe.

I'm off. Don't bash each other too much (on TPS-L) and I'll be
talking with you soon. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH"  5-AUG-1991 18:23:02.06
Subj:   USSR, a message, (#537)

Dear Listmembers,

This is a reflections message, written "on the road," so to speak. I
have thought a great deal about the SU "dilemma" staring at the stars
in the nights we've been away, about the only time there has been to
reflect. One has to hope that the the SU does not disintegrate into
chaos for the world's sake, yet it would appear that both the
republics and the and the central government are not really willing
to yield intransigent positions.

One wishes that the ruble was convertible instantly, that
infrastructure and distribution problems were solved, that political
differences could be resolved other than by force, and that these
problems unsolved would not be a source of world tension. However, if
wishes were horses, homeless people would have a home, and poor folks
wouldn't be poor. A lot has to change in the SU, and the world will
have to wait patiently while the USSR goes through a painful
transition to get where it needs to.

I probably will not be on again before the 11th, as coming here was
most disruptive of the short time we have. Take care, and I will
speak with you when I return to KC. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 12-AUG-1991 22:50:43.92
Subj:   USSR, "Thoughts," #538

"Thoughts"

This too is a reflections post as I gather myself back together after
10 days isolated from news and publications. I read a bit of the
traffic of TPS-L in the past day, seems as though the list jumps from
one confrontation to another, though one finds many a gem in the
discussion, such as the recent one (apparently) on the value of the
ruble in comparison to dollars.

I've also followed the Roy Medvedev discussion with some interest in
the thirty-six hours since I've been back. One believes, after wading
through all of the 1989 edition of _Let History Judge a couple of
falls ago, that a) Medvedev is only marginally a communist, b) he IS
definitely a centrist-socialist and vigorously anti-Stalinist, c) the
last information I had about him was that he had been booted from the
CPSU several years ago, and d) I cannot recall in his writing any
anti-Jewish bias. He is no saint, and hews closely to the "Gorbachev
line," but he has endured much to write his histories, and deserves
better than labels of a shallow nature about his character. Now, in
these days of glasnost, and as a member of the Supreme Soviet,
Medvedev finally has privileges to defend, and the old man clearly
wants to hold onto what he has so dearly paid for. (Ironically, one
of my friends, knowing my interest in all matters Soviet, picked up a
copy of Roy and Zhores Medvedev's _Khruschev: The Years in Power
(1978) and brought it to me this very day to add to my swelling
library of Russian and Soviet related volumes - now exceeding 180, a
mere drop in the bucket, but the budget will not support a faster
increase!).

It seems that all that is happening continues to happen too slowly,
and though Gorbachev is despised in his own land, no man really steps
up to replace him in a solid way. Yes, Yeltsin is popular among the
masses, but he falters at a program. (Though he has stuck to his
principles on banning the CPSU from workplaces, schools and
government offices, this writer remains convinced that democracy in
the sense the West thinks of it is still a major blind spot for
Yeltsin. Look at how he effectuated the ban of the CPSU - by decree!)

As summer wanes and fall approaches again, the Soviet Union remains
in a high state of flux, with many unseen behaviors occurring below
the view of Western eyes. Reform goes slowly, as though all sides and
"parties" are looking to the Congress of People's Deputies in
November(?) to see whether Gorbachev will survive to lead, and if he
doesn't, who will replace him. (A much more fascinating question than
the American Presidential situation!) Almost nineteen months has
passed for me as an e-mail commentator on the Soviet scene, and my
attention remains riveted on what might happen next. It hasn't been
boring, and promises to be livelier and gloomier before a new
direction is clear. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 13-AUG-1991 23:09:28.89
Subj:   USSR, Albania, Croatia and ..., (#539)

USSR-

According to NPR this afternoon, Prime Minister Valentin Pavlov
warned in a press conference that the winter could be a hard one for
the Soviet people. He cxited runaway inflation brought on by higher
energy costs as the main reason.

The Presidential Cabinet was reported to have rejected the idea of
freezing wages until at least next spring. Pavlov reportedly said
that "it might be difficult to solve things by decree." In #538, I
suggested that this tendency was still there in the upper leadership
- Gorbachev and Yeltsin are both prone to rule by decree - and later,
I received a non-attacking post pointing out that such occurs in the
US too, and my correspondent cited the recent executive order of
George Bush redefining wetlands as an example. I agree that
democracies also function by decree, but in a narrower manner than is
the custom in the Soviet Union, where a great deal of decision-making
occurs by ukaze.

Albania-

Roughly 17,500 of the 18,000 Albanians that poured into Italy in the
last week have been deported back to Albania. 500 holdouts that were
holed up in a soccer stadium will now not be removed by force,
according to the Italians today. They will attempt to "bribe" them
instead to return to Albania with new clothes and an undisclosed
amount of money.

Croatia-

Relative peace prevailed overnight in Croatia, though yesterday saw
three Serbs killed in an "accidental" air air attack by the Yugoslav
air force, and two Croat policemen were killed, allegedly by Serb
nationalists. A plot to buy weapons in the US was uncovered and at
least 4 were arrested. A POW exchange supposedly on for today
apparently failed, according to NPR. The Serbs reportedly have
offered to form a new federation, in which they would remain the
dominant partner. Reportedly, Slovenia, Croatia and Bosnia have
rejected the idea.


A hard winter in the USSR could bode ill for the political survival
of Gorbachev and for the success of reform economically and
politicallty. No solution to the volatile Yugoslav situation, and the
slightly less tense Baltic situation before winter's coming could be
a severe aggravation and potential source of serious problems for
both the "dying" Yugoslavia and for the Soviet Union. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 14-AUG-1991 23:51:34.58
Subj:   USSR, Croatia and China, (#540)

USSR-

Robert Kaiser, author of _Russia, The People and the Power and _Why
Gorbachev Happened: His Triumph and His Failure is also a deputy
managing editor of the Washington Post, and a frequent contributor on
matters Soviet. His latest piece, in the Washington Post Weekly of
12-18 August, echoes Pavlov's remarks of yesterday. Entitled "In
Moscow, the News Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better," and at the
risk of arousing some wrath, I want to quote some of it.

"... The new Russian Revolution is destroying the old Soviet Union,
but revolutionary destruction is chaotic and confusing. It is easy to
see what is happening but impossible to see what will happen next."
(Though many of us have offered educated guesses this past 18
months!)

Kaiser goes on to say that the ruble is nigh unto worthless (tell us
something new!) and that the CPSU is crumbling fast. Having lost 4
million of the once 19 million members it had in roughly a year, I
would have to say Kaiser is right about the party. He points out that
"Russians expect grave shortages of food, and fear there may not be
enough fuel to heat the tiny apartments in which they hide from
winter's cold."

He then points to Lenin and says this last icon of Communist society
is a "target of reformer's criticism." He says men like Aleksandr
Yakovlev, once Misha's right-hand man, now is considered
"insignificant." "The dominant crisis now is a `crisis of power,' in
the words of Georgi Shakhnazarov, one of Gorbachev's resident
intellectuals." He then compares Gorbachev and Yeltsin, one having
"never received a single popular vote, the other received more than
50 million." Kaiser then quotes a radical economist, Vasili Selyunin,
as saying, "Without Yeltsin, Gorbachev is nothing." Kaiser calls
Mikhail Sergeyevich "a brilliant tactician, a gifted manuverer."

But, Kaiser echos what many of us have said. Gorbachev is VERY
unpopular at home, among the intellectuals, the apparatchiks, and the
masses, who feel things have gotten worse. Kaiser then tackles the
union treaty, having the same trouble with numbers we have had, he's
saying nine or 10 republics will sign, but that without Yeltsin's
support, the treaty would have died stillborn. (It may still perish).

Kaiser then claims that Gorbachev has cast his leadership lot with
the republic "presidents," rather than the conservative police and
generals. I disagree; I believe these two groups still wield great
influence over Gorbachev, hence his various cautious behavior
presently. Kaiser says the country swung right at year's beginning,
and is now swinging left again. He may be right.

He says the conservatives are upset, that Kryuchkov of the KGB, Yazov
of the Defense Ministry, Gromov & Pugo, respectively deputy and
Minister of the Interior, are "openly critical of their President."
(Actually, he didn't mention Pugo, only Gromov, but in other reading,
it is clear Pugo is supportive of the criticizers). Kaiser goes on to
say that recently Gromov and deputy minister of Defense Varennikov
published a "screed" last month that decried "the crafty and glib
rulers, clever and cunning renegades and rich moneygrubbers who,
mocking our beliefs and exploiting our naivete, have seized power and
are now robbing this country ... condemning us to misery, slavery and
dependence on omnipotent neighbors ..." People close to Gorbachev
called the letter a "sign of ... panic." One observer was quoted as
saying, "Better a letter than a coup."

Kaiser writes that Yeltsin figures the key to the future is the drive
for the republics to "control the finances of the central government,"
stop the printing of more rubles and curtail the budgets of KGB and
the Defense Ministry. But, as several of us have pointed out, Kaiser
suggests that getting the treaty to fly is far from assured, and does
not answer the question this writer has hammered on for a year - what
about those republics who refuse to sign the treaty?

Kaiser reports that the Soviets printed 150 billion rubles this year,
doubling the number in circulation in January. Hyperinflation and a
scarcity of goods is sure to follow. He says," The Soviet equivalent
of GNP will decline as much as 25% in 1991. Gorbachev has issued
scores of decrees ordering various solutions to the economic crisis,
but the decrees have no effect. Hence the crisis of power."

Gennadi Burbulis, Yeltsin's chief aide, predicts an October-November
financial crisis, which ironically may dovetail into the meeting in
November of the Congress of People's Deputies. "A new wave of strikes
is expected to begin soon. Air traffic controllers may go first -
later this month. The miners are restless, but without their coal the
country could freeze this winter." (This may mean Gorbachev's fall,
which many believe will happen before February, 1992, despite his
gifts as leader. Without popular support, one cannot lead).

Kaiser then goes on to report on the declining influence of literary
journals and writing, the rising generation gap (with many young
people just wanting to leave the country), and closes with comments
by Gavril Popov, recently directly elected to the job of Moscow's
Mayor. He says the country needs to "take responsibility for a new
system," it "nedds a new kind of stroing executive power to allow
mayors. among others to govern effectively," "a reliable legal
system," "real competition," and a "market infrastructure." Popov
says it would take 5-10 years for such a program to be effective, but
"it hasn't even started yet."

Croatia-

A Val-L subscriber caught me in an error, for which I apologize. It
was not Bosnia rejecting the idea of a new federation dominated by
Serbia, but Macedonia. Next week, CNN reported earlier today, the 8
members of the Federal Presidency and the 8 republic President's are
scheduled to meet, probably in Belgrade, in still another attempt to
work out the seemingly insolvable problems of disunion.

China-

The Chinese are reportedly sending a trade delegation to Washington
next week to argue on behalf of MFN for China with US legislators.
They hope to dispose of a wide variety of trade and political
conflicts during their visit.


It would look as though more than a few observers see catastrophe
coming to the SU, and pretty soon. One has to hope that some
reasonableness and good sense will prevail, but the outlook for fall
and early winter is dark and grim from this vantage point. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 16-AUG-1991 00:43:18.52
Subj:   USSR, responses to TPS-L and Mideur-L posts of 15 August, #541

These two posts are taken from two different lists, but both pertain
to matters Soviet, and are both current, so as I'm exhausted, I
thought I would limit this post to these responses.

>From:  IN%"MIDEUR-L@UBVM.BITNET"  "Discussion of Middle Europe
>topics" 15-AUG-1991 08:22:13.95

>Subj:  News

>From: Andreas Moehn <moehn@MAX.MPIP-MAINZ.MPG.DBP.DE>

>Following the precedental case of Lithuania two weeks ago, Georgia
>has recognized the republics of Slovenia and Croatia. The Soviet
>regime declared the recognition invalid.

These acts of recognition both stemmed from "governments" hostile to
the proposed Soviet union treaty, and who are apparently attempting
to set up a track record of independent foreign policy. One continues
to be bemused and saddened that in the Lithuanian case, the Soviets
cannot see that the iron fist, over the long term, will not prevail.
The Lithuanians believe themselves independent, will not be collared
by force and that the Soviet attempt to keep the Balts and Georgians
in thrall by duress and declared invalidations of their doings will
eventually backfire. In the Georgian case, this kind of tactic will
drive the Georgians further away from the central regime in Moscow,
not closer.

>Meanwhile, a paper of unknown origin has appeared in the Russian
>Republic requesting the secession of 19 districts of Western Sibiria
>into a sovereign republic with Novosibirsk for capital. The origin of
>the proposal is unknown. Yeltzin refused.

Though one is somewhat daunted by this move and the Ossetian move in
Georgia of a similar nature, this is a pretty good-sized area - and
if coal miners are on the verge of strike, as I mentioned yesterday,
citing Robert Kaiser, this could be a bad time for President Yeltsin
to flatly say no to Siberian aspirations, however threatening to
Russian unity they are (more threatening to Russia's economy, this
being one of the natural resource repositories of the entire
natuion!). Such a rigid stance might not be the brightest move.

>(Sources: Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung)

>Andreas Moehn
>Europe

From:   IN%"TPS-L%INDYCMS.bitnet@UMRVMB.UMR.EDU"
"talk.politics.soviet via ListServ" 15-AUG-1991 23:05:36.49
Subj:   And in from the right - Vladimir Shirinovsky

>From: Erland Sommarskog <sommar%ENEA.SE@UMRVMB.UMR.EDU>

>There was an article in today's Svenska Dagbladet about this guy. He
>came from nowhere and got 8% (= six million votes) in the Russian
>presidental election as a candidate from Russia's Liberal Democratic
>Party. Apparently he is now heading for the Soviet presidental
>election which comes in the next twelve months. (Huh? The newspaper
>said so. I thought Gorby was elected for five years to 1995.)

Actually, I think there has been discussions about a Presidential
election countrywide next year, but as it stands now, Gorbachev is
President until 1994, elected by the Supreme Soviet, and then would
have to face a mass electorate then to be re-elected (unless some
change has been made I missed, which is VERY possible!). How does an
arch-conservative call himself a Liberal Democrat? Even by the skewed
terminologies of the SU, that's a far leap. Shirinovsky sounds like
the Harold Stassen of Soviet politics.

>One can dispute whether this guy is to be taken seriously. Basically
>he wants to restore the Russian empire within the 1914 borders. For
>instance he has questioned Finland's independence. According
>Shirinovsky, Lenin did not have the power to give away a Russian
>province.

Fool that he is! Sounds like he and Solzhenitsyn are on the same
wavelength. Dream on folks! The Tsar has been dead since 1918, and
all has changed. The Empire is now the Union, and that is in deep
danger of crumbling. To attempt to deny Finland its sovereignty at
this juncture would probably lead to limited war with the West.

>Recently he has been talking to Russian workers in the Baltics. He
>says, when he comes to power in Russia, he will create a Baltic
>province with Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Kaliningrad. (Whoops,
>Kaliningrad was not in Russia 1914. Guess that's bonus.) The governor
>for this province is already appointed: Viktor Alknis. Shirinovsky
>also said, to the audience's delightment: "Don't come with your talk
>of independence. For more than 270 years ago Russia and Sweden signed
>a treaty where the Baltics for ever and always was given to Russia."
>(Whoops again, Sweden never held the entire Baltics, but only Estonia
>and Northern Latvia.)

Nothing is forever. If that were so, the Hapsburg in the
European Parliament could demand, with some legitimacy (using
Shirinovsky's reasoning) the restoration of the Austro-Hungarian
empire. Shirinovsky may appeal to narrow rightist Russians who fear
they'll be swept away if the Balts gain independence, but going
backward don't work, won't work. To put the apparently almost
fascistic Alknis (not sure that's the correct spelling) in charge of
this volatile, and pre-dominantly independence-minded, area would be
sure to set off civil war. The guy's a fruitcake! (Though I admit any
candidate who plays to folk's fears can do well in the SU now,
everybody is afraid of everything! Hitler proved this all too well in
1932-33). In addition, Konigsburg could demand to be given back to
Germany, and to hell with this Kaliningrad stuff!

>While the guy sounds crazy, he could still be a danger. If Tyminski
>could get 24% in Poland, what cannot happen in a confused and hungry
>Soviet Union? Comments? --

I agree, for the reasons above. I'd be really curious to know if in
fact such elections are to happen next year. This kind of reactionary
could do astonishingly well if an election WERE to be held in the
next year. People afraid will do the damnest things.

>Erland Sommarskog - ENEA Data, Stockholm -
>sommar@enea.se

VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 17-AUG-1991 11:16:26.62
Subj:   USSR, and ..., #542

USSR-

Aleksandr Yakovlev was formally expelled from the CPSU yesterday. In
a statement after the action was taken, "Mr. Glasnost" reportedly
said that the Stalinists in the party were planning a coup. He also
was reported to have said that the CPSU is "dooming themselves to
diminishing returns," rapidly losing viability with the mainstream.

The editor of "Top Secret," a person named Boyvik, was interviewed
yesterday; the gist of his remarks being that many people believe the
"democratic party" that Yakovlev, Shevardnadze and Anatoly Sobchak,
the mayor of Leningrad, are involved in may be "a new trick" of the
Communists. If such is so, what kind of a "trick" are they up to, one
wonders?

Yacovlev himself indicated that the CPSU was an "obstacle" to reform.
He suggested that the right is attempting to accomodate with the left
in order to block reform. It would appear from this distance that
while some in the SU are committed to reform, and recognize the
necessity for change if the SU is to interact with the international
market community, an equal or larger number wants to return to the
rigidity of the past. Decision-making, and accepting responsibility
for those often difficult decisions, is coming very hard for a large
chunk of the Soviet population.

Yesterday also saw the signing of a trade agreement between the two
largest Soviet republics, Russia and Kazakhstan, in a move that the
two leaders hope will encompass all fifteen republics. Reportedly,
the two men also offered to mediate the Armenian/Azerbaijani dispute.

The Baltics-

Balt-L reports a protest in front of Soviet army barracks in Vilnius
to demand Soviet troops leave Lithuania, and that Austria may on the
verge of recognizing the Baltic states as independent entities. That
will enrage Moscow, who continues to reiterate the Baltic republics
are part of the SU and will remain so. This rigidness on the part of
the Kremlin is sad to behold.

Croatia-

An EC copter was forced down yesterday near a place in Croatia called
Okuciani (think I'm spelling this right!). No one was killed, though
in other incidents yesterday, 2 were reported killed, 9 wounded. The
Croatian Interior Ministry announced today that 4 more had died
today, and that sinc the "ceasefire" began ten days ago, there have
been 94 violations of it. 21 people have allegedly been killed since
the ceasefire began. Today, the Pope, on a visit to Hungary,
indicated he supported the idea of an independent Croatia (and
presumably Slovenia).


It would appear that everyone possible continues to pretend that the
aspirations of the 6 dissident republics in the USSR and the two to
four in Yugoslavia do not exist, or can be ignored in favor of larger
considerations, and/or the use of force. Either that "code phrase"
self-determination has meaning, or it is empty, pragmatic posturing
on the part of the Western powers when it serves their political
and/or economic needs, such as in Kuwait. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 18-AUG-1991 23:39:08.72
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #14

Mikhail Gorbachev, on vacation in the Crimea, has been deposed as
President of the Soviet Union, CNN reported 10 minutes ago. He had
been on vacation since 4 August, and was apparently removed by the
conservative wing unhappy with his policy and directions. The
Vice-President, whose name I do not have at my fingertips has been
named his interim successor. The Nikkei index in Japan dropped 1000
points upon hearing the news. More as soon as possible. This may a
serious  turning point backward, both for the Soviet Union, and for
world politics in  general. It may be the gravest crisis in modern
Soviet history. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 18-AUG-1991 23:53:51.36
Subj:   CNN is in indeed reporting Gorbachev's ....

"resignation," for "reasons of health." Ha! He has been deposed. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 18-AUG-1991 23:50:27.23
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #15

It was reported three minutes ago that Mikhail Gorbachev resigned,
according to Tass, "for reasons of health." His replacement, for the
nonce, is Gannadi Yanayev, the current Vice-President. At the risk of
being horribly impudent about this tough situation, I suggest Mr.
Yanayev will not stay in the post long. One also expects that
certain crackdowns will probably soon occur in Georgia, the Baltics,
Moldava and Armenia. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 00:29:24.17
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #16

On my last day of posting to all three lists, Gorbachev's deposement occurs.
CNN is reporting that the US President was told of this development at 2245
CDT. CNN's Steve Hurst reported from Moscow a few moments of ago that an
"emergency committee" of the following individuals is now running the Soviet
Union, using Mr. Yanayev, the Vice-President as their Acting President. I
think it safe to predict he will not last. The "New Reform" committee issued
a statement in Moscow declaring in part that their move was made to begin
"overcoming a profound political and economic crisis ... with considerable
chaos" in the country. The Committee is made up of the very men who tried to
get at Gorbachev at the Central Committee meetings and failed - Prime Minister
Valentin Pavlov, Defense Minister Yazov, Interior Minister Pugo, and KGB Chief
Kryuchkov. Reportedly, also the Ministers of Agriculture and Industry are
involved. It is reported by CNN that a 6 month state of emergency has been
declared, and that troops are out in force in the larger cities. There are
those, such as former US Ambassador to the Soviet Union, Arthur Hartmann, who
believe that "the genie is out of the bottle," and that these men cannot put
it back in. Hartman, interviewed in France, said that this deposement is the
CPSU "making its stand," that Mikhail Gorbachev "underestimated" the party
stalwarts determination to hold onto to what they have. Hurst predicted a
crackdown, so do I - both against "dissidents and liberals" in the larger areas
but also especially in the so-called "rebel republics." The new "union treaty"
was to have been signed tomorrow, which one suspects is the reason for this
coup. Both Shevardnadze and Yakovlev warned against this, look for trouble
for both these men, and Yeltsin. I suggest that also Gorbachev will be exiled
or killed - he is not a Khrushchev, and alive could continue to be a serious
problem for the new ruling junta. Lastly, this transition may not immediately
cause civil war, but it might over the long haul, espdecially if predicted
"draconian measures," (Hurst's words) are imposed. I fear deeply for the
people of the USSR. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 01:12:45.15
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #17

As I reported earlier, the Nikkei index has dropped 1000 points in afternoon
trading, CNN is reporting the G7 nations are moving to shore up the currency
markets, as the yen and deutschmark are reportedly falling fast, while the
dollar is rising. CNN reports also that the independent radio station Moscow
Echo has been jammed since the coup began. Hurst reported seeing a column of
APC's go past CNN's Moscow Bureau about ten minutes ago, and that earlier a
column of 30 APC's were seen headed for a train station in Moscow. The White
House admits to being caught flat-footed by this news, and that they had had
no advance warning. The military, KGB, police and CPSU are moving to reposition
power in the hands that held it prior to Gorbachev's accession 12 March, 1985.
CNN reports at 0112 CDT that the Nikkei index is now down 1350 points. There
is "panic buying" reported on the currency markets. More soon. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 01:17:04.52
Subj:   The fall of Gorbachev

I truly apologize to TPS-L members who are also subscribers of RUSSIA and/or
Val-L about duplicated messages - when I come back online at noon, only RUSSIA
will be getting them, with intermittant posts to Val-L if import warrents.
Thank you for your patience and tolerance. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 01:53:54.23
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #18

The first footage of the APC movements in Moscow were just shown on CNN, and
the amount of vehicles was prodigious, and looked most intimidating. CNN is
also reporting that the first news Muscovites had was at 0645, roughly 2145
CDT, this morning that the "putsch" had occurred. It is reported that Gorbachev
is under "house arrest" in the Crimea, and that my earlier speculation about
the timing of the move is probably correct - the union treaty that was to have
signed tomorrow will not be, and this is increasingly the apparent reason for
the coup occurring now. Hurst speculates that Gorbachev's fate will not be
learned "for some time." It is speculated that US SAC bombers are on a higher
state of readiness, but that no other action is happened at the higher levels
of the US military, though Defense Secretary Cheney and the President, both on
vacation, have been notified (one US official calling this mess "a serious
situation," another downplaying until more facts are known). Yanayev, Misha's
immediate successor, is reported to have issued a statement denouncing the union
   treaty. The Soviet Embassy in Washington is not commenting "at all." The US
currently has no Ambassador to Moscow, as Strauss hasn't assumed his duties
yet, and Jack Matlock has retired. So, the US' interests are being represented
by a Charge d' Affaires, whose name I do not yet know. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 02:53:00.77
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #19

Boris Yeltsin is reported by CNN as going to have a press conference in about
eight minutes, reportedly to say to the world to help the SU get through this
difficult time by calmness. Will report on it in full. The show of force is
becoming more pronounced as more and more footage comes in. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 03:19:45.37
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #20

CNN is reporting that the Yeltsin press conference is not yet happening, it
would appear Yeltsin is, at the least, now only a figurehead, and he too may
have been removed by the troika of army/police-(KBG)/party - still is not
known. Early reports are that Soviet troops are moving to shut down an
independents TV station in Kaunas, Lithuania, but no confirmation on this yet.
THe show of force is larger now than two hours ago.  VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 03:36:33.90
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #21

The French News agency is reported to be quoting a Yeltsin spokesperson
identified as Pavlov Bashinov as saying that Gorbachev has been placed
"under arrest" by the "committee" that deposed him. He is being held at
his "official residence" in the Crimea. A leading reformer in the Red Army
who had been recently ousted from the military is reported arrested in the
street. The Frankfurt, Tokyo and London markets have all taken sharp dives
downward. 150 APCs have been reported seen in motion in Moscow. An independent
TV or radio station in Moscow has been seized by the Red Army, and an
independent TV station in Kaunas, Lithuania, is reported surrounded by the Red
Army. The NATO political committee is to meet in emergency session in a few
hours. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 05:05:25.57
Subj:   USSR, the coup in Moscow ..., #543

USSR-

Mikhail Gorbachev reported under arrest, a committee removed him and
named as interim chief Vice President Gennadi Yanayev. The coup has
stunned the West, and brought calls for a general strike from both
Russian Federation President Boris Yeltsin, who some describe as now
a figurehead under some danger of arrest and or being killed, and
President Vytautas Landsbergis of Lithuania.

It would appear, however, that a huge show of force in Moscow proper,
consisting of dozens of tanks and hundreds of APCs, might make such a
a strike difficult. Leningrad is reported as "sealed off," with phone
lines cut and Mayor Anatoly Sobchak "missing."

Landsbergis said, in a desperate appeal to the world, "Do not allow
the tragedy of Budapest and Prague to be repeated." Yeltsin said, I
paraphrase, that his credentials came friom the people, and only the
people could remove him. He went on to say the coup was an "illegal
act," and that he had tried to call Gorbachev but had been unable to
reach him. It is unknown whether Gorbachev is at his "official
residence" outside Moscow, or whether he's at his dacha in the
Crimea. Wherever he is, he is reported under arrest.

All media. TV, radio, and print, are under "special control,"
according to Yeltsin. THe first decree of the "emergency committee"
has been repeated over and over on Soviet TV and radio, along with
old war movies and somber music, as might normally occur at a
leader's death. He also reported that what was in charge in the
Kremlin is a "military government." At present, CNN is reporting a
large number of people at the Russian Federation building, the
dramatic pictures show tanks in large numbers moving to seal off the
center of Moscow.

The CNN Bureau chief, Steve Hurst, probably predicts correctly that
serious bloodshed will occur if a general strike is attempted. At the
same time, the Speaker of the Supreme Soviet is reported to have
denounced the union treaty whose signing tomorrow is said to have
been what precipitated the coup. Hurst also suggests that the moments
left in power of men like Yeltsin and Landsbergis to be "hours." It
would appear, from his vantage point, that only republic leaders
loyal to the central regime will be left in place.

The START treaty, the union treaty, all kinds of other US/USSR
protocols agreed to just three weeks ago are probably doomed to a
slow death. Other capitols are highly disturbed. Prime Minister John
Major of the UK is reported to have said the situation is "very
disturbing," but also "not clear." Mitterand is said to be going to
hold a special meeting in "a few hours." The EC Foreign Ministers are
to meet in Geneva about the crisis, as is the NATO political
committee to meet in Brussels as the situation continues to unfold.
ALL assistance plans from the west are now said to be in abeyance. So
far, no further word on the frankfurt, London and tokyo market
slides.

Few believe this "unrest" at the top of Soviet leadership will extend
into eastern Europe, but already a call has gone out on Mideur-L to
not ignore Yugoslavia as the world's attention shifts to the
dramatic events in the USSR. It is believed by some that the Serbs
might use the "chaos" in Moscow to pull some military action of their
own. More and more tanks are pouring into Moscow as each hour passes,
wuith a whole column moving down the street that has the Russian
Federation building on one side, the US Embassy on the other.

It would appear that the top leadership in the SU has taken a sharp
turn right, and that all kinds of folks will affected very
negatively. A bitter and sad time for the Soviet people, no matter
how much and how many of us observers and commentators remarked on
the possibility of this day coming. Lastly, as it is 0500, and I've
been commenting for over 6 hours almost non-stop, I may have to
reconsider cross-posting to at least Val-L on the SU, given the
number of you who do not subscribe to TPS-L, and do not wish to
subscribe to RUSSIA. (No judgement is offered by me about that, just
may have to reconsider my decision). Will keep you posted. Due to
node maintenance on Monday a.m here, will be offline until noon CDT,
though I may write once more before then. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 05:43:42.44
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #22

As I'm about to fall over, this is my last comments on the "Moscow coup"
until 1200 CDT. John Major just offered comments at #10 Downing Street that
said that Gorbachev's role in world affairs should not be overlooked, that his
removal was "unconstitutional," and that while Britain had "always thought this
possible," he regretted this event's occurrance. The Nikkei took a 1357 point
drop today, it's fifth worst ever. Markets in London, Paris, Frankfurt, Hong
Kong and Australia all plunged today. Major said he hoped that this event
"would not cause panic" on the international markets. A laudable hope, not
appearently happening. Two commentators from the fleging Russian republic TV,
now shut down, both seemed to think the center could not enforce its will in
the other republics and that this situation might be reversible, despite reports
   that political officers in the army are telling the troops that the West
approves of the coup. Major also called on whoever is in charge to "respect &
honor" all committments made by Gorbachev. Don't count on THAT happening! One
would suggest START will be an early casualty of the overthrow, and the union
treaty died the moment Gorbachev's overturning was announced. AP reports that
a column of military vehicles that had looked to headed for the Russian
Parliament bulding went past it to a destination unknown. Let us hope for the
sake of the Soviet people that as little blood is shed as possible, and that
this group of "usurpers" understands they could precipitate a world crisis by
the actions they've taken in the past eight hours. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 13:53:19.61
Subj:   USSR, further info on the coup, #544

What follows is commentary and as much as I can offer of the press
conference offered by the "emergency committee" headed by Gennadi
Yanayev.

First, it would appear that Mikhail Sergeyevich is still alive, but
that may not remain the case. What is also clear is that Boris
Yeltsin is not going along with the program. At roughly 1100 CDT,
Yeltsin had called for civil disobedience and a general strike, and
there has been SOME photographic evidence of bus barricades in
Moscow.

Some reports this morning had the emergency committee saying to
Yeltsin to clear out of ghuis office, however the Russian President
defiantly called the committee's actions illegal and
unconstitutional. He urged a general strike, and it is reported that
coal miners may strike tomorrow, despite the emergency committee
placing large areas of the country, especially Moscow, under
emergency situation, banning all strikes and demonstrations
(immediately ignored by a huge mob of people earlier in the evening
in Moscow) and demanding weapons in the hands of citizens be turned
into authorities. It is reported that Estonia has been sealed off from
the sea, and that Leningrad is sealed off including phone service.

Now to the Yanayev et al press conference. Five other men accompanied
him - Starisdutsev (?) (head of the Peasant's Union), Gesikov (?)
head of transport, Bakilanev (?)(deputy chairman of the committee,
don't know what he did before), another man unidentified, Pugo of
Interior, and Yanayev.

Yanayev- "Under provisions of 7.7 of USSR consttution, the Vice
President has taken office (as Acting President)." " At a critical
moment for the Soviet Union and the international community ... a
deep crisis calls into question reforms ... the situation has gone
out of control ... a situation of multiple rule has arisen ... a
disintegrationb has occurred of a single foreign policy, of a single
economic policy ... many regions are acting towards a breakup of the
Soviet Union ... this has the gravest international repurcussions ...
resolute action taken to stop the country from sliding down into
disaster ..." (he then named the state committee, already being
called the Committee of Eight - including, besides the men named
above Kryuchkov, head of KGB; Pavlov, the Prime Minister and Yazov,
the Defense Minister)( Vremya then reported two other members of the
committee, Prokonov, and Tizikov, the industry chief).

He then said that the committee had declared "a state of emergency
... the gravest crisis ... determined to take full responsibility
..." He pledged "nationwide discussion on the union treaty ... that
the committee is determined to restore law and order ...," he pledged
"relentless war on criminal underworls ... will rid our cities of
crime and prevent further pilfering ..." he claimed the committee
stands for "economic renewal and prosperity ...  development of
country must not be a decline of living standard ..." He emphasized
that "the rights of the people most disadvantaged will be repected
..." That "economic diversification, free enterprises" would occur,
"that "top priority will be given to food and housing ..." he called
on "peasants, workers and intellectuals to reestablish labor
discipline ..." he reiterated that the committee would "strictly
adhere to all obligations, that the Soviet Union wanted to live in
peace and harmony, that nobodsy can interfere with the sovereignty of
the SU, that the committee is not ashamed of patriotic feelings ..."
he then said he "felt justified in instilling this patriotism in
our younger generation."

Yanayev then called "on all citizens of the USSR to support the state
emergency committee ..." He then took questions. On Gorbachev, " Our
hope is that Mikhail Gorbachev, as soon as he feels better, will take
up again his office. I look forward to working with him." He then
said "perestroika has not brought results... that there had been a
drop in the rate of production ..." that it was a "difficult
situation for enterprises"... He claimed contact with all republic's
representives and that he and the committee had the support of "a
majority of them." Later, he adroitly ducked the issue of how the
dissident republics were supporting the "coup," whgich he said was a
"misrepresentation" of what had occurred. He bristled at a qustion
about whether the committee had consulted with General Pinochet, and
did not answer the question.  Asked about the Russian Federation,
Yanayev said, "I believe that if leaders of Russian Federation would,
we could find ways of cooperation ..." He said "appeals to general
strike were an irresponsible action, and we cannot afford this - that
it is impermissable to play these political games ... " Yanayev said
that Supreme Soviet will meet 27 August to ratify committee's
actions. He claimed first priority step will be "to salvage crops,
that the country will use whole potential to make an inventory of all
that is in our country, the we will tell the country what we have
..." he admitted that "we have done a poor job on housing production
in the past three years ..." he claimed "food, housing and
transportation were most important, that extraordinary measures would
have been taken to make sure than an energy crisis does not occur ...

CNN reports that the Russian Federation building is surrounded by
troops loyal to Boris Yeltsin. Eileen o' Conner of CNN reports that
the Commander of troops around the Foreign Ministry assured her that
he would not use force. It is reported that no troops movements have
been seen outside Moscow. Deputy Secretary of State Eagleburger has
met with the Soviet Ambassador. There were scenes earlier of
Muscovites imploring soldiers not to do what they're doing. President
Bush is reported to have said the actions taken by the Committee of
Eight are "outside the boundaries of the Soviet Constitution."

Russian Federation Foreign Minister Andrei Federov reported to CNN
that Yeltsin had sent a personal appeal to President Bush, that
barricades such as occurred in Vilnius in January were now in place
around the Russian Federation Building in Moscow, that "the people
can stop the proicess" initiated by the emergency committee, that the
Leningrad City Copuncil had called for a general strike at 0700
tomorrow Moscow time, and that that such would prably set off a
general strike around the country. Federov also reported that Yeltsin
disbelieved the Committee of Eight's statements about Gorbachev's
health.

I will conclude for now. I guess for the interim of the "crisis,"
that I will be posting to my list Val-L and to RUSSIA. Beyond that,
only circumstances will tell what occurs. May the people of the USSR
be spared civil war! VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 15:17:31.69
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #23

Ten tanks are reported by CNN as having broken away from Tomanskaya and Tula
tank divisions and now reported protecting Russian Federation building, and
Boris Yeltsin. Hundreds of other Russians are said to be inside and outside
this building. Angry crowds were said to be shouting at soldiers about shooting
at their mothers and comrades. The Soviet military is said to have taken over
all media - the ESOC1 link is "not active," and I have no other reports from
anyone specificly in the SU. It appears that all Western aid is now suspended
until it is seenm what happens. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 15:39:15.01
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #24

NPR reports the following at 1530 CDT -
1) Strikes are already occurring at individual mines, more are to occur
2) A. Sobchak is reported still in charge of Leningrad
3) Yeltsin has called for a mass rally tomorrow near the Kremlin
4) Shevardnadze is reported to have called on the West to support the reformers
   over the coup leaders
5) The Soviet Military District has allegedly taken control of all three
Baltic republics
6) The US Dow Jones index plunged 70 points in the wake of the USSR coup, with
losers outnumbering gainers 8-1.
A heart-breaking time, I feel deeply saddened for the people and especially
the soldiery of the USSR - all of whom face VERY hard choices in the next
few days. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 19-AUG-1991 23:34:10.63
Subj:   USSR, the coup continues ..., (#545)

USSR-

THe Soviet situation remains in flux. As I am cut off from the the
networks, have no idea of what is being said at the computer level,
but it is 0630 in Moscow, and as yet, no word on whether the general
strike called for by administrations or individuals in Moscow,
Leningrad and Sverdlosk is actually occurring or not.

Yeltsin stated that the seizure of power was "illegal," and a
"disgrace to the Soviet people." He has reportedly holed up in the
Russian Federation building surrounded by tanks that have reportedly
deserted from their units to defend the "legitimately elected
President" of Russia.

Soviet paratroopers are reported by NPR, CNN and ABC as having taken
over key media installations in Estonia and Latvia, and taken over
key areas in Lithuania. No word at this hour as to the fate of
President Landsbergis. The Georgian "president" called for calm and
expressed concern that his republic would be the next target after
Interior troops had "secured" the Baltics.

Late in the day US time, the White House announced that they would not
recognize the "extra-constitutional" government established today,
and that all aid contemplated for the SU would be put on hold.
Mitterand of France and Kohl of Germany both demanded assurances from
the coup leaders of Gorbachev's safety. THe US called for Gorbachev's
restoration.

NPR reported that in Leningrad that demonstrations had occurred in
that city on the site where workers gathered when the Winter Palace
was seized during the October Revolution in 1917. Conflicting reports
abound about whether Mayor Sobchak is still in charge there or not.

Newspapers in the SU have severely curtailed, late today a list of
only nine approved publications was released. Most TV and radio has
been seized or shut down, faxes "cooked" by electronic overload, all
computer links appear to be down. Peacenet reported that Leningrad was
still accessible at about 1700 CDT, we have been isolated since 1800
CDT by failure in either Illinois or Columbia, Missouri, and I have
heard nothing further.

Some deputies of the Supreme Soviet, supposed to meet on 27 August,
according to Yanayev earlier today. were said to be in the Russian
Federation building with Yeltsin.  A crowd of 5-6,000 is reported to
be holding an all-night vigil at that location, in a manner similar
to the actions taken by Lithuanians in January. Footage at 2330 CDT
on CNN indicates that such a vigil is indeed going on.

Yeltsin claimed that he was not allowed to talk to Gorbachev by the
"criminals" who staged the coup. He said he had spoken with Mikhail
Sergeyevich on 16 August, and that his health was fine at the time of
that conversation - the Soviet coup leaders again resorting to the
lie when the truth would suffice.

Moldava is reported as "heavily armed" and that they would resist
takeover by KGB or Interior troops. It is unclear how strong the hold
the coup folks have outside the big cities. ABC showed one general
who said that not all soldiers might follow orders to fire on fellow
Soviet citizens. The Soviet general was reported to have also said
"Don't assume all army will obey orders." McNeil/Lehrer reported
that "massive purges mayt begin soon."

In the US, Secreatary of State Baker, Secretary of Defense Cheney, US
Ambassador-designate (who will be sworn in tomorrow morning) Robert
Strauss and President Bush are to meet in the morning. On "Nightline"
tonight, both former Ambassador Jack Matlock and Senator Sam Nunn
(D-Ga) indicated that they questioned the wisdom of sending Strauss
to Moscow as long as an illegitimate government we weren't
recognizing was in power. Nunn also indicated he thought we ought to
suspend $900 million in grain credits, make the SU pay in cash for
anything until a legitimate government is restored, and not send
Strauss for now.

CNN reports tonight that Soviet warships have blockaded the harbor of
Tallinn in Estonia, seized TV and other installations in Riga, and
shut down TV in Kaunas, Lithuania.

Earlier market news indicated that $300 billion had been lost in the
markets in the wake of the Soviet coup - 6% in Tokyo, 4% in Australia
and South Korea, 4% in France, 8% in Hong Kong, 3% in London, 2% in
US, and a staggering 9.5% in the Frankfurt exchange.

A late-breaking piece of "Nightline" claimed that Gorbachev had left
the Crimea by plane for an unspecified location. Lastly, Stephen
Larrabee, a consultant for the Rand Corporation, predicted large
scale violence would occur before this was all over. Sadly, I agree.
There appears no peaceful solution in sight. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 20-AUG-1991 00:20:27.78
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #25

The Soviet people, and army, are apparently taking sides. As dawn
breaks, at  least one army unit went over to the "White House" (the
Russian Federation building) to "protect Yeltsin" and be "on the side
of the people." It is  believed by many that the next 24 hours will
be critical as the called for  general strike does or does not unfold
in the cities and towns of the USSR.  While Cuba, Iraq, the PLO and
Libya applauded the fall of Gorbachev, most of the rest of the world
denounced or warned the Soviet coup leaders. NATO warned that the
reform movement continue, Thatcher called Yeltsin the hope of the
democrats, Reagan said it would depend on the people of the SU versus
the  bureaucracy, Bush called the coup "illegitimate," Kohl and
Mitterand both reportedly demanded assurances of Gorbachev's safety,
Major called the situation"ominous." The Baltics are called "quiet"
at the midnight hour (CDT) though a man was reported killed in Riga
by troops. In Lithuania, the Soviet Baltic Military district
commander demanded Lithuanian police and militia surrender  all arms.
Though I have no idea whether I'm getting out, as links are down, my
hopes and concerns lie with the people of the SU. Lastly, both ABC
and CNN report Gorbachev has left the Crimea by plane for an
undisclosed location. I hope the best, fear the worst. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 20-AUG-1991 09:21:59.28
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #26

Current info indicates massive demonstrations in Leningrad and Moscow despite
the ban, and it's reported 400,000 people were demonstrating against the new
regime in Moldava. Sobchak is reported still in charge in Leningrad, Yeltsin
was giving a speech a little while ago outside the Russian "White House." The
chairman of the Supreme Soviet claims Gorbachev is still in the Crimea, but
Interfax claims Gorb was brought to the Kremlin under guard, rumored to be
later meeting with members of the coup. President Bush is to have a press
conference on the events in the SU in the next ten minutes. The Lithuanian
Parliament is or has been meeting in emergency session, tanks have rolled into
Tallinn. The EC announced the freezing of $1.5 billion in aid. That's what I
know at 0900 CDT. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 20-AUG-1991 20:24:16.75
Subj:   USSR, more coup summaries..., (#546)

This is a summary of the events of the USSR from a variety of sources
as best as I can read my notes.

First, one comment. Several of you have sent me things to retransmit
to Val-L, or to "other lists." In ALL the cases, the things sent were
things I've seen multiple copies of already, and I could not in good
conscience re-transmit them again (forgive me, "rufus!").

Where to start ...  OK, chronologically to the degree I can. This
morning, NPR reported that several Red army commanders had declared
allegiance to Yeltsin, presaging an army split of great concern to
both the coup leaders and to the democratic resisters of the coup.
(More on this matter as I progress).

As my day started at 0730 CDT, NPR reported that Yeltsin had demanded
>from the coup leaders that he be able to meet with Gorbachev in 24
hours. (He could get his wish most negatively if they grab him!)
Later, by 0900 CDT, it was reported that Yeltsin had also talked with
UK Prime Minister Major, whom he reportedly told that "there was not
much time left," and with US President Bush. President Bush, in his
1000 EDT news conference, said he "confirmed US support for the
restoration of Gorbachev as the Soviet Union's constitutional
leader."

At that press conference, Bush also announced he was sending
newly-sworn-in US Ambassador Bob Strauss "immediately" to Moscow "to
get a feel for the situation." He will not be presenting his
credentials, and will be back in "a few days." (If they'll let him
in!) Secretary of State Baker is off to Brussels for an EC Foreign
Ministers meeting tomorrow. Bush also spoke to at least Walesa of
Poland this morning, and said he had tried twice to call Gorbachev
himself, and "had failed."

I then trooped off to the library to delve, ironically, into the
world and times of the October Revolution of 1917 for my senior
thesis and was out of touch for two hours, coming back to 135
messages (after 120 this morning), and with a request from my History
Department to ferret out from the nets, if I could, the possible
whereabouts of a Moscow State University student, Jolia Borisnovna
Stepanenko,  who was to come here this fall, was to leave Moscow 19
August and who hadn't been heard from. I also caught hell from a
senior sysops person here for calling nodes to find out why links
were down and when might they be up, told I would be "disusered" (an
odd form of "discorporation!) if I did it again, for bugging other
nodes unnecessarily. I was shocked at that. So, if I go silent, or
links go down, I cannot inquire about why to anyone. Sorry.

The news was full of rumors. That V. Pavlov was sick and had resigned,
that D. Yazov was sick and had resigned, and that V. Kryuchkov was
sick and resigned. Later, "Vremya" confirmed that Pavlov had stepped
down, but denied the departures of the other two. Irony of ironies,
Pavlov quit for the same reason Gorbachev was "removed;" ill health.

Then, the speechifying by Popov, his former deputy Stankevich,
Shevardnadze, Yakovlev,  and Yeltsin was reported on. Popov declared
the declarations of the coup leaders not legal. Stankevich said
Gorbachev had tried to leave his dacha near Faro on the Black Sea,
but that "they" had used tractors on the runway to block his plane
>from taking off.  Stankevich said he had been placed under heavier
guard. He also reportedly said to soldiers ringing the "White House,"
If blood is shed, you'll be doomed, God is with us."

Shevardnadze warned that this was the beginning of civil war, a
resumption of the Cold War, and famine. Yakovlev said that the
"people had to stand strong, everything depends on us." Yeltsin
declared that though there had been a 2300-0500 curfew declared that
everybody was staying where they were to the crowd of "tens of
thousands," covered by special bulletproof material as he and the
others spoke from the same balcony Lenin had spoke after he came to
Moscow as the new Russian leader.  CNN reported that Yanayev today
had cancelled all of Yeltsin's decrees, and allegedly issued orders
for Yeltsin's arrest.

As the curfew hour approached (1500 CDT), BBC reported that the
crowds were defying the curfew. The army commander on the scene, one
General Kobietz (?), seemed uncertain and was reported as havinbg
decided not to try to enforce the order. However, it was reported
that KGB Spitznatz (?) units were beginning to assemble near the
building for an attack deep in the morning, like about 0400-0500
Moscow time (2000-2100 CDT). BBC's report said that 300 armed
soldiers supporting Yeltsin were in the building, and so were 3000
lightly armed to unarmed citizens to repel any such attack were it to
come. Later, 3 were reported killed by gunfire, including fire by
tanks - 10,000 people were reported there at 2000 CDT. Yeltsin said
that he hoped the army "would not be covered with the blood of the
people."

Germany, Britain, Japan, France and the US all called today for the
restoration of Gorbachev. No jamming of international phone lines was
occurring. Huge demonstrations occurred in Leningrad, Moldavia and
Moscow, while Georgia and the Ukraine declared the center's laws
"null and void." The Ukranian President declared that when he met
with Gorbachev last week, he was in "perfect health." Estonia
declared full independence. The Latvian Prime Minister is reported
arrested. The military commander of the Leningrad district agreed to
keep troops out of the city, while Sakharov's widow, Elena Bonner,
called for a "government-in-exile" to be based in Leningrad. Coal
miners are reported striking, while oil workers reportedly won't
because of the potential damage to the Soviet economy.

The newspapers are severely curtailed, Komonsol Pravda suspended
publication, while the Union of Writers demand the press ban be
lifted. Vremya had no mention of either Yeltsin or Gorbachev today.

Later, on McNeil/Lehrer, the four Americans interviewed; Henry
Kissinger, McGeorge Bundy, Donald McHenry and Jeanne Kirkpatrick, all
seemed to agree the next 48 hours are critical, with varying degrees
of pessimism/optimism about the outcome. Diane Sawyer of ABC
interviewed Yeltsin in the Parliament building - he said they had
been there 48 hours now, planned to spend the night again, and
concluded "we are not leaving the battle."

As the rain falls, and the deaths begin, the ordeal is not begun to
be over - the Second Revolution is headed into another day. At 0415
Moscow time, how that day will turn out is completely in doubt. Our
hopes are with the people of the Soviet Union that the bloodshed will
be small, and that the democracy that had begun will begin anew. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 21-AUG-1991 09:21:34.01
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #27

The coup is apparently broken, with reports that the Committee of
Eight has fled to central Asia, or some other undisclosed location.
Yevgeney Primakov and the former Interior Minister may be headed to
Faros to meet with Gorbachev, while Yeltsin stood at the Russian
Parliament and praised the people of Moscow for  their will to resist.
Latvia is reported to have declared independence, though Lithuania
reports no motion of troops out there as is occurring in Moscow at
this hour (0900 CDT). 3 were killed in clashes last night. The CPSU
is reported to be calling the takeover illegal now that it has
failed. President Bush is to offer comments in eight minutes. The
Soviet Union is probably never going to be the same after this, the
regions wanting out probably will be able to. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 21-AUG-1991 13:34:46.37
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #28

This is the last of the multi-list bulletins now that the situation
in the  USSR has almost calmed down again. I will continue to post to
RUSSIA AND Val-L, the latter because of the huge volume of my readers
who did not want to sub to RUSSIA or TPS-L.

Several media report Gorbachev has been reinstated as Prsident, with
CNN reporting at 1300 CDT that the Supreme Soviet had taken this
action, plus lifted press and demonstration restrictions ordered by
the "Gang of Eight." Defense Minister is reported a suicide, Pavlov
in hospital and Yanayev in his office, the other five reported to
have fled, to either Kirgizia or the Crimea or both. George Bush
reported he had spoken with Gorbachev by phone. Soviet tanks are
reported leaving Moscow, with the death toll in last night's clashes
raised to four, one a "foreigner." The Moscow prosecutor reports that
the Gang of Eight is "under investigation." Strauss is in place as US
Ambassador, and may present his credentials to Gorbachev as early as
this evening. The Supreme Soviet is to meet 26 August. Telephone
links have been restored to the Baltics, no word on the "center's"
reactions on Baltic declarations of independence. Gorbachev is to
visit the Russian Parliament building, while Yeltsin leaps forward in
stature for "leading" the resistance. Yeltsin gave credit to the
people's vigilance and defiance. Yeltsin revealed that Kryuchkov had
invited him to go with him to meet with Gorbachev, he refused. The
army  continues to leave. It needs to shake down, but the crisis
appears to be over for the moment. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 22-AUG-1991 10:15:18.39
Subj:   USSR, reflections on the coup; first thoughts ... (#547)

As our system was crashed from midnight to about 0830 this morning,
I could only sit on the sidelines, listen to news and think about the
events of the past few days. Here are a few reflections on the whole
matter of the coup.

My friend Bruce suggested that this was a "fake" coup. I respectfully
disagree, though he has been to the SU recently and I've never been.
I believe this was a dying gasp of the reactionary wing of Soviet
official life, who could not bear the idea that power was moving away
>from the center, that the financing of the military and the formerly
omnipotent police would be in the hands of the republics, that all
the perks and privileges of the powerful would be lost. (I'll address
Bruce's post of 21 August more fully later today).

The Gang of 8 - Yanayev, Yazov, Pugo, Baklanov, Tizyakov, Kryuchkov,
Pavlov, and Starisdutsev (not sure on the spelling here)- were only
the tip of the iceberg. Pugo apparently has already paid with his
life; no loss, as many thought him a thug. Kryuchkov, Yazov, Yanayev
and Pavlov will probably pay with their lives for treason aggainst
the state and the leader. I don't know the names of the men to
replace all these clowns yet, though I know Moiseyev is to be the new
Defense chief. People have been named for KGB and Interior, and there
is supposedly a new deputy Defense Minister. The shakeups and firings
and trials will go on for some time. Many, many heads will roll
before this is done. Look for the power of the CPSU to be permanently
diminished, ditto the army and the KGB.

The shift of power in several directions is occurring too. First, and
most obvious, is the rise of Yeltsin as the foremost political entity
in the USSR. What he will do with this new status remains to be seen.
Another area of shift will be the republic's role to the center. The
Ukraine, Moldava and Georgia refused to go along with the coup,
Latvia and Estonia joined Lithuania in declaring independence. The
center may now have to recognize these varios drives for
independence, in recognition for their resistance against the
"illegal" coup, and in political recognition that attempting the
rightest method of repression to hold them would backfire. Yeltsin's
new power may also be thrown in on the side of the indepence seekers.
I believe that there will continue to be a relationship of trade and
social interaction between those wanting out of the Union, and those
who stay.

The Soviet Union's problems that were there before the coup continue
to exist, and will not be solved by Western aid. To those who say we
would have averted this coup by more Western aid, I respectfully
disagree. The Soviet state and peoples must solve their own problems.
we can help, and should, but not with money so much as with
expertise, support and encouragement, and solid planning in "right"
directions. But as the brave citizens of the USSR proved that they
can resist brute force, they can find solutions to the myriad things
that need addressing.

Lastly, as I have to enroll children and myself into school and will
be away for more hours as the mail pours down on me, I salute the
valiant people of the SU, they have shown that they value their new
democracy, and will not be bullied by thugs and police creeps any
more. I salute those in the army with the moral courage to say that
they would not shoot at their fellow citizens, and I salute Boris
Yeltsin, Anatoly Sobchak, Elena Bonner, Eduard Shevardnadze, Sergei
Stankevich and Aleksandr Yakovlev for having the courage to stand up
against the coup, and resist, especially Yeltsin. May better days
come from this moment of pain and sorrow! VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 23-AUG-1991 17:19:50.99
Subj:   USSR, changes so fast no one can keep up! (#548)

So much has happened in the past 48 hours that this report does not
pretend to cover all the ground it could.

USSR-

Today, a new power-sharing arrangement was announced in Moscow, where
Yeltsin and Gorbachev agreed to assume each other's office in a
crisis. In a almost humiliating session of the Russian Parliament,
Gorbachev was forced to admit his entire Cabinet was on the side of
the coup-plotters, and ought to be fired.

Let's see if I can cover all the decrees, bannings, firings and
replacements. The KGB chief named yesterday, Chebarshin (?), was
sacked and replaced by the moderate Vadim Bakitin (?), formerly the
Interior Minister. The Defense Minister named yesterday, Moiseyev,
was fired, replaced by Colonel General Yevgenny Shoposhnikov (?). The
deputy Defense chief named yesterday, whose name I never heard, fired
and replaced by Lt. General Pavel Grachev. The new Interior chief,
Victor Baranikov (?), replaces a man named yesterday. Bessmyrtnykh,
the Foreign Minister, was sacked, his excuses said not be the truth.

The CPSU is banned in Latvia, Lithuania, the army in Russia and in
the KGB. THE CPSU is suspended in Russia. Tass' chief is fired.
Pravda and five other papers are closed down. Nazerbayev, "president"
of Kazakhstan, quit the CP yesterday. Uzbekistan's leader quit the
party. Across the country, the CPSU was banned or removed from
government structures. As was dramtically seen last night, the statue
of Felix Dzerzhinsky was hauled down in front of KGB headquarters,
reportedly at the orders of Yeltsin. The Moscow CP Central Committee
building was shut down today. The KGB headquarters was sacked and
shut down in Vilnius today, and a statue of Lenin was torn down.
Signs at the CPSU offices were torn down in Moscow. Pravda had
changed its masthead yesterday, but that didn't save it. Dimitri
Simes, an emigre analyst in the US at the Carnegie Endowment, warns
that a CP witchhunt could be dangerous.

Victor Alknis, the right-wing Colonel said last night, " A purge will
now begin. We'll fall into the mire of neo-Stalinism." At last
report, he, too, was under arrest. The chief of the Latvian CP,
Alfred Rubiks (?) was placed under arrest.

Iceland announced it will send Ambassadors to all three Baltic
nations next week. Ronald Reagan reportedly spoke to Gorbachev and
suggested recognition of the Baltics, and then publicly called for
such recognition. Lawrence Eaglebuger, Deputy US Secretary of State,
said that Baltic recognition would occur in 6 months. I say by
Christmas.

The old imperial flag; white, blue and red horozontal bars, was
adopted as the Russian state flag.

Lastly, for now, many warn that SOME aid needs to be given to the
Soviets, especially in the way of food aid. Stankevich emphasized
this today. Many feel that the winter will be hard, especially in the
industrial cities.

Later on today, I'd like to offer a short synopsis of George Kennan's
remarks on McNeil/Lehrer last night, which will be #549 in this
series. Thank you. VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 23-AUG-1991 19:30:42.64
Subj:   USSR, "On the Remarks of George Kennan ...," (#549)

"On the Remarks of George Kennan on McNeil/Lehrer 22 August, 1991"

I would preface this by saying that though about 85, Kennan still
stands as one of the premier Sovietologists in this country. He was
introduced as the architect of the US stance towards the USSR post-
World War II - containment - and the author of 18 books, of which,
alas, I've read two. (NOTE: he refers throughout to the USSR as
"Russia," for the purposes of this article, I shall follow his
usage).

Kennan said, "Don't underestimate the difficulty of Russia's near
future. It is the first time in history that the Russians have turned
back on how they were ruled."  I suspect we haven't begun to see the
depths of change yet, and no one, least of all the Soviets, have any
idea of where the whole shebang will go. I think the Russians HAVE
turned away from one rule to another, but I would amend Kennan's
comment to say it's the first time the so-called Russian "common
citizen" has turned on a government, and made it go a different way.

Kennan said that the citizenry "demands a voice in their future," that
"even 1917 had nothing quite like this," that this event "is the most
hopeful turning point in Russian history." I think I agree, though
I've always thought the accession of Peter the Great in the 1690's
and the 1917 Revolutions as "great turning points." I think the use
of the word "hopeful" is significant.

He pointed out that it "was a different Russia than in 1917...," that
"a far greater proportion of the population read" now than then. I
agree, that being one reason that the crap offered by the coup
leaders was so hard to believe.

He compared the undesirabilitry of the Tsar's regime in 1917, and the
revolt against it, with the undesirabilty of the hard-liners, and
the rebellion against it. He suggested that folks thought "Communism
would be better than the Tsar," and that "revulsion against Communism
made them not accept it." Yet, he suggsted that the citizenry's
"revulsion" could "delude you, hearing that in the great cities. I'm
not sure how it proceeds in the countryside away from Leningrad and
Moscow." Apparently, Communism and the CPSU is raising "revulsion"
across the country. It appears a quickly dying entity.

Kennan said "Glasnost has changed the country," and that this was
"owed in large measure to Gorbachev. He has his faults and blind
spots, but his great service to Russia is the permitting of an open
press, permitting the people to speak, and opening Russia to the
outside world." I think he's right. Mikhail Sergeyevich will be
denounced often in the days and weeks to come, but he performed a
service to the Soviet nation that they will too quickly forget and
dismiss, but without him, they would have never had the courage or
wherewithall to have turned back the coup.

Kennan agreed that Gorbachev was the "author of his misfortune," and
that "he will hear many accusations" about "the indulgence of these
people. He appointed these men. He was aware that the party and
police had large power." He surely was, even though he agreed that HE
had made mistakes inb judgement about these men. Yeltsin made him
swallow that in earnest today. Kennan said, "He may have gone too
far," that the changes "were not easy for him," that "he clung for a
long time to the belief that the party could be changed." He still
does, in that he probably has been already passed by.

Kennan said a thing then that many of you will disagree with, but I
respect him for having said it. He said of Gorbachev, but also more
generally in the first sentence," Loyalty is the only human virtue
that can be respected," and said of Gorbachev, "I respect him for
fidelity, but he's wrong. He could be left behind, partly because of
that." Kennan appears all too right.

On Gorbachev, he continued "He had done pretty much what was his
historic mission and contribution, but he did have blind spots." He
went on to say Gorbachev saw "the party as a means of change, that
the empire could be kept together," and that this view was "a failure
of insight and judgement." He went on to say that "the day of great
empire is gone." He then compared the Soviet empire to those already
fallen - the Turkish, the Austro-Hungarian, and the British empires.
Kennanan said, "They all yield to forces of modern nationalism, which
accelerates the breakup, and affects his position. He has hitched his
star to the center." And he will probably fall because of where his
loyalties lie.

He said that possession of nuclear weapons had been taken care of by
the union treaty, and that there were "provisions that took care of
nuclear weapons in the wrong hands." Those provisions aren't clear.
The treaty is now obviously going to be renegotiated. He went on to
say that Gorbachev and the Soviets will "have to recognize the
inevitability of decentralization of the state." It's nice to know
that without knowing it, I have agreed all these months with who I
consider the top Sovietologist in the country.

Kennan went on to say that "Gorbachev will not survive, he will not
do that. Everyone has his hour, his period, and cannot have more than
one." If only Gorbachev could see this with dignity, and his
successor not grind his nose in the fact that his moment has passed,
as appears Yeltsin is doing. (I fear for this man's colossal
arrogance, no matter what good he accomplished!). Kennan continued,
Gorbachev has exhausted what he had to give," and conceded that
"Yeltsin comes out as the great person of the hour." Kennan then
pointed out the differences in the two men, to a small degree,
"Gorbachev had not a feel for people, whereas Yeltsin relishes in the
contact. Yeltsin is a courageous and strong man; he was popularly
elected, and the people were reluctant to be deprived of their
choice." Yet, their choice should not crush the man he's obviously
going to replace.

Kennan closed with a reference to what we should do by referring to
a speech the once Ambassador to Russia and later President John
Quincy Adams had said, roughly, that America was a guardian of
liberties everywhere while Russia struggled to guard just their own
(a paraphrase, as I'm not familiar with this long ago 4th of July
speech). The slightly deaf Kennan sat proud and erect as he concluded
that "we should encourage all we can. We cannot regard Russia as all
one country, but must take account of decentralization and help the
end republics." Hear, hear! VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 24-AUG-1991 14:11:44.87
Subj:   Soviet Bulletin #29

It is being reported from Moscow, first from Interfax and then
official Soviet TV, that Mikhail Gorbachev has resigned as the
General Secretary of the CPSU, that he has ordered the Central
Committee to disband, and that all property of the CPSU is to be
transferred to the state. The 15 million members of the party are
left without direction, though apparently the official announcement
also announced the formation of a new party (don't know its name
yet). VMS

From:   VAX1::CDELL        "VALENTINE M. SMITH" 24-AUG-1991 18:40:37.66
Subj:   USRR, the CPSU is dead! The CPSU is dead! (#550)

I have no idea when you will get this, as Illinois at
Champaign-Urbana is down, has been down all day, and a rumor has
reached me that they will be down all weekend. So, I'm once again cut
off from the computing world, most frustrating, but naught that I can
do about it. Stubbornly, I'll write and send this anyway, to close
out the most momentous of my USSR files to date, #22.

USSR-

THe news continues to stun the brain, today's fall of the CPSU and
Gorbachev's resignation as General Secretary of the party not
imaginable even months ago. One figured that they would be in decline
in the wake of this week's events, but not that Gorbachev would say,
as reported earlier today, and I'm going with the translation I
heard, "The central committee of the party (should) take the decision
that is called for, that is to dissolve the party." He then said, "I
resign as General Secretary."

Later, Gorbavchev, Yeltsin, Elena Bonner and US Ambassador Robert
Strauss spoke at the funeral procession of the three young men killed
by the tanks at the height of the coup as it progressed past the
Russian Parliament building on its way to the church where the young
men were buried from. Yeltsin, "This is a national day of mourning.
We must unite in spirit in order to move swiftly ahead ... The heros
that have fallen have helped ...We'll never forget their names ...
They'll now be sacred..." Gorbachev, in part, "Allow me as President
to bow low to these young people who gave their lives ..." Elena
Bonner, " I offer words of condolence to the loved ones of our dead
..." Strauss, "... they did not die in vain ..., may the memory of
them burn bright..."

Since Tuesday, and as of this morning with the Ukraine, 7 republics
have declared their independence and desire to secede from the
"union." They are Lithuania (the first, their declaration the only
one preceding the crisis), Latvia, Estonia (both while the coup was
still happening), and since Moldavia, Georgia, Armenia and now today,
the Ukraine with its 50 million people. The latter republic will hold
a referendum 1 December on the subject of secession. I've not hard
details in the cases of the other three new ones, the Balts all held
referendums approving secession earlier this year.

I think it safe to say that the Soviet Union we have known all our
lives is disintegrating before our very eyes in a most tangible way.
What it will become is not yet clear. How the vanishing republics
will fare on their own is already a matter of debate, though I've
said in prior posts that I believed the Balts would come out OK, and
I have to think that the Ukraine will do alright economically, with
their biggest customer being ... the USSR!

Moldava, I think, will rejoin Romania, but not right away (though
I've been wrong about so much else - they'll probably rejoin next
week!). Georgia and Armenia remain big question marks to this
observer - not strong economically, both having problems with
neighbors, Georgia having internal minority problems (as will
all three Baltic nations to one degree or another), and with the
Azeri staying in the "union," they'd have Soviet might to hassle the
Armenians over Nagorno Karabakh. (I personally think that the
Armenians in that region ought to pack it in, and head for Armenia,
under Red Army protection).

Vitautas Landsbergis," This coup helped all the people of the Soviet
Union gain their freedom." He went on to say that the rights of the
Russian minority in Lithuania would be protected. Other republics
banned CP activity, or banned the CP altogether. The changes have
only just begun. A small side note, on the passing of things. A huge
statue of Lenin in Octoberskaya Square in Moscow was heavily defaced
today, and the Russian government promised a crane in the early a.m.
of 25 August to pull it down. The heros of the past are no more. New
heros will rise in the panapoly of people to be revered in the "new"
Soviet Union, whatever name and form it finally takes.

Lastly, a note of caution and grimness was injected by the incredibly
serious (I've seen him interviewed dozens of times - he's never once
cracked even a smile) Sergei Stankevich, Deputy Mayor of Moscow.
Basically what he said is that "winter's coming'" with a crop
situation not as good as last year's. This bodes ill as the union
flys apart in all directions, this winter promises to be rough in all
of the SU, whether seceding or staying in. I close with my a salute
to the three young nmen buried today - thy died for freedom, and
deserve the highest praise, and I, too, say their names (which I do
not know) should never be forgotten. VMS